Missouri travels to Fayetteville Saturday night looking to reestablish its offensive consistency against an Arkansas team desperately searching for momentum.
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The 23rd-ranked Tigers enter the contest with a 5-2 overall record and a 2-2 SEC mark. Arkansas stands at 3-4 overall and 1-3 in conference play.
On paper, Missouri appears to have the advantage. However, the Tigers’ recent performances suggest this contest could become considerably more competitive than their rankings indicate.
Missouri was off last weekend after suffering a lopsided defeat at Ole Miss on October 17.
The open date gave head coach Eli Drinkwitz additional time to evaluate an offense that has produced respectable yardage totals but has struggled to finish drives.
Through seven games, Missouri is averaging 430.3 yards and 31.1 points per contest.
Those figures are reasonably impressive, particularly considering the defensive talent throughout the Southeastern Conference.
Unfortunately, Missouri has experienced significant difficulties inside opponents’ 20-yard line.
The Tigers have converted only about half of their red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, a problem Drinkwitz publicly identified during preparations for Arkansas.
That inefficiency can be particularly costly against conference opponents.
Moving the football between the 20-yard lines is important, but consistently settling for field goals can turn comfortable victories into close contests.
Missouri’s defense has generally been more dependable.
The Tigers allow approximately 330.6 yards and 19.6 points per game, including just 104 rushing yards per contest.
That rushing defense could become a significant factor against Arkansas.
The Razorbacks have struggled to establish a consistent ground game, averaging only 111.6 rushing yards per outing.
Arkansas also averages just 21 points per game, making offensive efficiency an obvious concern.
The Razorbacks cannot afford to waste scoring opportunities against a Missouri defense that has been effective at limiting opponents’ production.
Arkansas does possess an important advantage: the game is being played in Fayetteville.
Reynolds Razorback Stadium can become an uncomfortable environment for visiting teams, particularly during evening games.
The Razorbacks need to give their supporters something to cheer about early.
A quick touchdown, defensive turnover, or special-teams play could generate momentum and put Missouri under pressure.
Arkansas’ defense also needs improvement.
The Razorbacks surrender approximately 357.7 yards and 26.7 points per contest. Opponents have converted 42.9 percent of third-down opportunities, allowing too many drives to continue.
That is a dangerous weakness against a Missouri offense capable of generating yardage through both the running and passing games.
The Tigers should look to establish an effective rushing attack early, then use play-action passing to create favorable opportunities downfield.
Missouri’s recent problems inside the red zone will be worth watching closely.
If the Tigers repeatedly settle for field goals, Arkansas could remain competitive deep into the fourth quarter.
Conversely, if Missouri converts its opportunities into touchdowns, the Razorbacks may struggle to produce enough offense to keep pace.
Turnovers could also determine the outcome.
Arkansas needs additional possessions and favorable field position. Creating turnovers would provide the Razorbacks with scoring opportunities they might otherwise struggle to manufacture.
Missouri enters as the more complete team, particularly on defense.
The Tigers should also benefit from the additional preparation time provided by their open date.
Still, a road game against a conference opponent with little margin for error is never a guaranteed victory.
Expect Arkansas to make this interesting for at least three quarters before Missouri’s offensive balance and superior run defense become decisive.
16Powers Prediction: Missouri 30, Arkansas 20
