The Border War returns Friday night with considerably more than nostalgia attached to it.
No. 23 Missouri enters 1-0 after overwhelming Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14, but Kansas represents the Tigers’ first meaningful measurement of the season. Missouri has the advantage in overall roster talent, but rivalry games have a way of erasing comfortable assumptions.
The Tigers need to establish themselves physically early. Missouri should be able to attack Kansas on the ground and then use play-action to create opportunities downfield. The larger concern is whether Missouri can avoid the mistakes that allow an underdog to hang around. Penalties, turnovers and poor special-teams plays become magnified in a rivalry environment, particularly on the road.
There are also some personnel questions worth watching. Missouri entered the week with several players listed as questionable, including tight end Gage Hoffman, running back Ahmad Hardy, receiver Jayvan Boggs/Brady depending on current roster listing, and offensive lineman Cayden Green. Kansas also has injury concerns in its backfield.
Kansas will want to turn the game into a four-quarter fight. The Jayhawks’ best opportunity is controlling possession, forcing Missouri into long drives and capitalizing on field position. Missouri cannot approach this like the mismatch it faced in Week 1.
The Tigers are favored by the analytical projections available this week, with one model putting Missouri roughly a touchdown ahead. That seems reasonable. Kansas should make Missouri work considerably harder than UAPB did, but the Tigers have more ways to win the game.
Expect a competitive first half before Missouri’s depth begins to make the difference. The Tigers should eventually create enough explosive plays to pull away, but this isn’t a game in which I’d expect them to cruise.
Prediction: Missouri 31, Kansas 23
