Oklahoma and Mississippi State meet in Starkville with both programs looking for a performance that can change the direction of their seasons. Neither team enters the weekend feeling particularly comfortable after recent disappointments.
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Oklahoma suffered a damaging loss to Kentucky, while Mississippi State was shut out by LSU. The Bulldogs and Sooners therefore have something in common: both need their offenses to produce a much better afternoon.
For Oklahoma, the biggest challenge is eliminating mistakes at critical moments. The Sooners’ loss to Kentucky included a late interception returned for a touchdown, precisely the sort of play that can turn a competitive game into a frustrating defeat. Oklahoma cannot afford another afternoon in which turnovers overshadow otherwise promising offensive possessions.
The Sooners need to establish control at the line of scrimmage. A dependable running game would take pressure off the passing attack and help Oklahoma avoid the obvious passing situations that allow defenses to become aggressive. Oklahoma has the athletic ability to create explosive plays, but it needs more consistency between those moments.
Mississippi State faces an even more fundamental offensive challenge. Getting shut out against LSU exposed difficulties sustaining drives and converting opportunities into points. The Bulldogs must find ways to move the chains, particularly on first and second down, rather than repeatedly asking their offense to overcome long-yardage situations.
Playing at Davis Wade Stadium should help. Mississippi State’s cowbell-filled home environment can create considerable noise and energy, particularly when the Bulldogs’ defense makes an important stop. An early touchdown would give the crowd something to celebrate and might help the home team regain some confidence.
Defensively, Mississippi State must concentrate on limiting Oklahoma’s big-play opportunities. Allowing the Sooners to produce long gains through the air would put additional pressure on a Bulldog offense that has struggled to score. Keeping Oklahoma in manageable field-position situations is essential.
Oklahoma’s defense has a straightforward assignment: make Mississippi State prove it can sustain possessions. The Sooners should attack the line of scrimmage, challenge the Bulldogs’ blocking and force the home team into difficult third downs. If Oklahoma can produce early defensive stops, the visitors may gradually take control of the contest.
One potential turning point will be red-zone execution. Both teams could move the football effectively between the 20-yard lines without necessarily converting those drives into touchdowns. Field goals are useful, but an offense struggling to score needs to capitalize when it finally reaches scoring territory.
I expect Mississippi State to play with considerable urgency after the LSU loss. The Bulldogs should be more competitive offensively at home, and their defense could keep Oklahoma from building an early lead.
Nevertheless, Oklahoma appears to have the better opportunity to establish a balanced attack. If the Sooners protect the football and avoid another costly turnover, they should eventually create enough scoring opportunities to win.
Predicted score: Oklahoma 27, Mississippi State 17
