Throw away the rankings. Forget the records. Texas-Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl has a habit of making otherwise sensible predictions look foolish.
Still, there is no question which team enters Saturday in the stronger position.
Texas is undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the country. Oklahoma has struggled to a 2-2 start. Yet Steve Sarkisian doesn’t have to look very far back for a warning against complacency. Last season the roles were nearly reversed: Texas entered the Red River game unranked with two losses while Oklahoma was undefeated and ranked sixth. The Longhorns won 23-6. CBS Sports
That’s precisely why Texas should expect Oklahoma’s best effort.
The Longhorns’ greatest advantage is a defense capable of wrecking an opponent’s offensive plan. Texas showed that against Tennessee, recording 10 sacks and repeatedly preventing the Volunteers from finding any offensive rhythm.
For Oklahoma, protecting the quarterback and staying out of obvious passing situations will be essential. Third-and-nine against this Texas front is a recipe for disaster.
Arch Manning doesn’t need to approach this as an opportunity to put on a show. Texas is good enough defensively that patience should be the offensive priority. Move the chains, establish the running game, protect the football and wait for Oklahoma to make a mistake.
Rivalry games often turn on precisely the opposite approach. A quarterback tries to force a spectacular play, throws an interception and suddenly a game that should be under control becomes a four-quarter fight.
Oklahoma’s path to the upset starts with making this ugly. The Sooners need to shorten the game, create turnovers, win field position and prevent Texas from building an early two-score advantage. The longer Oklahoma remains within one possession, the more pressure shifts toward the heavily favored Longhorns.
Texas should also remember what happened last year. Desperation can be a powerful motivator, and Oklahoma enters Dallas with very little to lose.
But there is a substantial difference between being dangerous and being better.
Texas has the stronger defense, greater depth and more dependable offensive options. Unless the Longhorns lose the turnover battle badly, Oklahoma will have difficulty producing enough sustained offense.
I don’t expect a blowout. Red River games have too much emotion and too many strange momentum swings for that prediction to feel comfortable. Oklahoma hangs around into the second half before Texas’ defensive front begins controlling the game.
The Sooners make the No. 1 team sweat, but Texas leaves Dallas undefeated.
Prediction: Texas 24, Oklahoma 13
Note: 16Powers.com is 19-8 so far this season picking winners. That said, these predictions are intended for entertainment purposes only.Â
