There may not be another SEC game this weekend featuring two teams more desperate to change the conversation surrounding their programs.
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Florida opened the season 4-0 and climbed all the way to No. 8 after a stunning 52-28 victory over Ole Miss. Then came Missouri. The Tigers dominated the Gators 45-17, outgaining them 560-325 and sending Florida tumbling to No. 16.
South Carolina’s situation is considerably worse. The Gamecocks are 2-3 overall, 0-3 in SEC play and have lost three consecutive games. Last week’s 35-34 overtime loss to Kentucky was particularly painful because South Carolina squandered a 17-0 advantage and eventually lost when Kentucky successfully attempted a two-point conversion.
Yet the Gamecocks remain dangerous because of quarterback LaNorris Sellers.
Sellers looked much more like the player South Carolina expected against Kentucky, throwing for 226 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for a season-high 147 yards on 17 carries. When Sellers escapes the pocket, he can transform a busted play into a 20-yard gain almost instantly.
Florida’s defensive discipline will therefore be critical. The Gators can’t allow their pass rushers to simply race upfield and create running lanes.
On the other side, Florida desperately needs to reestablish Jadan Baugh. Baugh entered the Missouri game having produced four 100-yard performances and 11 touchdowns during Florida’s 4-0 start. Missouri completely erased him, limiting Baugh to 13 yards on 12 carries.
That cannot happen again.
Florida needs Baugh to make South Carolina respect the run and give quarterback Aaron Philo favorable passing situations. The Gamecocks have enough athletes defensively that Florida doesn’t want to spend the afternoon facing third-and-eight.
South Carolina’s challenge is turning good stretches of football into a complete performance. The Gamecocks had Kentucky in serious trouble but couldn’t finish. Florida’s challenge is proving that Missouri was one disastrous afternoon rather than an indication that the 4-0 start was misleading.
The Swamp matters here. An early South Carolina turnover or Florida touchdown could quickly restore the confidence the Gators lost last weekend.
I expect Sellers to make enough plays to keep South Carolina competitive through the first half. Eventually, however, Florida’s offensive balance should become the difference. Look for Baugh to rebound with a much better performance and for the Gators to create some separation in the third quarter.
Prediction: Florida 38, South Carolina 24
Note: 16Powers.com is 19-8 so far this season picking winners. That said, these predictions are intended for entertainment purposes only.Â
