Kentucky has already demonstrated that overlooking the Wildcats is a very bad idea.
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Will Stein’s first Kentucky team is 4-1 overall and 2-1 in SEC play. The Wildcats have won at Texas A&M and just completed a remarkable comeback at South Carolina, erasing a 17-0 deficit before winning 35-34 in overtime on a two-point conversion.
Now No. 10 LSU comes to Lexington for a Saturday night game that could tell us quite a bit about both teams.
LSU is also 4-1 and owns some remarkable statistical numbers. The Tigers lead the SEC in total offense at 547.8 yards per game and total defense at 220.6 yards allowed. LSU’s defense is surrendering only 15.2 points per game.
Last week’s 63-14 destruction of McNeese demonstrated the Tigers’ offensive ceiling. LSU amassed 731 yards, including 367 rushing yards.
Sam Leavitt remains the key. The LSU quarterback is completing 66.2 percent of his passes and has also been dangerous as a runner, but his seven interceptions give Kentucky a potential opening. The Wildcats have forced 10 turnovers this season and generate considerable quarterback pressure.
Kentucky needs to turn one or two of those pressures into takeaways.
Kenny Minchey gives the Wildcats a chance offensively. He threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns in the comeback against South Carolina and showed considerable composure after Kentucky’s terrible start.
But third down is a major concern.
Kentucky is converting only 24.5 percent of its third downs, while LSU’s defense is allowing opponents to convert just 26.1 percent. That’s an enormous LSU advantage.
Kentucky cannot repeatedly face third-and-seven and expect to stay on the field.
The Wildcats also need to start faster. Falling behind South Carolina 17-0 and recovering is one thing. Falling behind LSU 17-0 could effectively end the game before halftime.
Kroger Field at night will help. Kentucky has enough confidence after its wins at Texas A&M and South Carolina to believe it belongs in this game.
I think the Wildcats will make LSU uncomfortable for a while. Minchey produces a couple of scoring drives, and Kentucky’s defense forces Leavitt into at least one mistake.
Over four quarters, though, LSU has too much balance. The Tigers can attack Kentucky through the air or on the ground, and their defense should eventually force the Wildcats into too many punts.
Kentucky makes it interesting. LSU finishes it.
Prediction: LSU 34, Kentucky 24
Note: 16Powers.com is 19-8 so far this season picking winners. That said, these predictions are intended for entertainment purposes only.Â
