Mississippi State faces the burden of proof in 2024.
Matt Zemek, 16powers.com
There are plenty of unproven teams in major college football entering the 2024 season. Some enjoy more of the benefit of the doubt than others. Mississippi State is not one of those teams.
It’s bad enough that MSU just endured a rough and choppy season under Zach Arnett in 2023. Arnett made the mistake of wanting to significantly change his offense in one year, even though the players he inherited from the late Mike Leach were recruited and coached to run a Leach-style offense. We saw this problem at Wisconsin as well. Luke Fickell immediately restructured his offense to attempt to fit the spread passing concepts of his new offensive coordinator, Phil Longo. Even though Wisconsin had a very specific style with players coached to work within that style, Fickell wanted the instant teardown and transformation. It did not go well for Fickell or the Badgers. It was similar with Arnett and Mississippi State.
Wanting an immediate change in style of play on offense, without having the full complement of personnel needed to run the new offense, just didn’t work well. It’s a lesson for coaches in roster management and style of play. When one approach is unique and particular to a coach such as Mike Leach, replacing that style of play in one year is usually not a reasonable ask. Incoming head coaches often need to play that first year with the style of offense the inherited players are used to. Year 2 can then usher in a substantial transfer portal makeover plus a fresh batch of incoming recruits who can play at the coach’s preferred pace. Arnett did not do this at Mississippi State last year, and as a result, the Bulldogs struggled. They went 5-7 and failed to make a bowl game.
Arnett is a quality defensive coordinator, but he didn’t show enough last season to inspire confidence in his abilities as a head coach, especially at an SEC program. Given that the SEC is expanding this season and is bringing in Texas and Oklahoma, Mississippi State knew it had to play with the big boys. The Bulldogs knew they needed another answer at their head coaching position. To that extent, the Bulldogs were smart.
The man the Bulldogs chose to be their head coach, however, did not generate a strongly positive national reaction. MSU might have been smart to not renew Arnett as head coach, but hiring Jeff Lebby from Oklahoma and Brent Venables’ staff did not come across as an inspired choice.
Oklahoma fans were upset at Jeff Lebby for most of the 2023 season. The Sooners didn’t have a bad season, but their offense was inconsistent and endured some very difficult moments. Lebby struggled to bring the most out of an offense which had some impressive weapons, including and especially Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. Oklahoma fans were happy and relieved when Mississippi State took Lebby off their hands. That’s not a ringing endorsement for an incoming head coach. Lebby will have a lot to prove to himself, to MSU fans, and to a nation of skeptics about his head coaching chops. Mississippi State faces an uphill battle not only because the SEC is going to be very difficult this year, but also because Jeff Lebby was not viewed as one of the better hires in the coaching carousel offseason.
Lebby might offer value to Mississippi State because he does embrace spread passing concepts and should give MSU a more modernized approach than what it had last year under Arnett, but style alone isn’t enough to identify a coach as the solution to a given set of problems. Is Jeff Lebby good enough and smart enough to match wits with the better coaches in the SEC? Can Lebby get Mississippi State to win games against opponents with better or equal talent? It is hard to be especially confident in Lebby with the season now a few months away.
In terms of personnel, receiver Lideatrick Griffin is off to the NFL and receiver Zavion Thomas hit the transfer portal. In came receivers Kelly Akharaiyi from UTEP and Kevin Coleman from Louisville. We will see how much work those two new receivers can do.
Mississippi State has brought in several transfers on the offensive line. The players might be good, but when an offensive line is substantially based on incoming players as opposed to recruits, communication and cohesion on that offensive line might suffer. That is one concern MSU has up front. Going up against SEC defensive lines, it’s not easy for the Bulldogs to think they can physically hold up. Not having players who are familiar with each other does not compensate for any worries about physicality and strength in the trenches.
The biggest roster question for MSU, however, is at quarterback. Blake Shapen has had an underwhelming career. He did not stand out or thrive at Baylor. He has experience, but Baylor went through a very difficult 2023 season. Shapen is not a gifted downfield passer, and it’s going to be fascinating to see if Lebby can bring out the best football Shapen has to offer. Most observers will be skeptical of what Shapen and Lebby can achieve together.
On defense, a number of MSU’s transfer portal acquisitions do not have extensive gameday experience in college football. They are developmental projects rather than ready-to-play starters. Early in the season, MSU could suffer from the lack of experience among its defensive newcomers.
The schedule has three manageable nonconference games. Then comes the SEC slate, and it will be rough for the Bulldogs. MSU must make road trips to Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, plus a home game versus a Missouri team which is seen as a College Football Playoff contender.
New head coach, new quarterback, new 16-team SEC. Mississippi State won’t get the benefit of the doubt in preseason analysis. When you look at all the details surrounding this team and its situation, you can instantly conclude that no one should be trusting this team. Trust will have to be earned.
