Oklahoma steps into the SEC and a new world of pressure.
Matt Zemek, 16Powers.com.
The Oklahoma Sooners are college football royalty. OU is one of the most decorated and successful programs in college football history. One of the defining aspects of this program, which has made it so prosperous on a historic scale, is that Oklahoma has found brilliant younger coaches whereas its competitors have not. Bud Wilkinson, Barry Switzer, Bob Stoops, and Lincoln Riley were all hired before they turned 40 years old. The first three men won national championships and became genuine Oklahoma football legends. In the 1950s, 1970s, 1980s, and 2000s, the Wilkinson-Switzer-Stoops trio made Oklahoma a heavyweight in the college game. Riley did not stay long enough to become legendary or loved at Oklahoma, but he accomplished a lot in the short time he was there. Four Big 12 titles, three College Football Playoff berths, two Heisman Trophy winners, and one Heisman runner-up gave Riley a hugely impressive body of work in Norman. Oklahoma has continued to hit the jackpot with coaching hires in different decades, but when Riley abruptly left in 2021, the Sooners lost the coach they had previously thought would gide them into the SEC and this big new transition for the program.
The Big 12 wasn’t necessarily an “easy” conference to win, but Oklahoma did benefit from Texas being less than great in the years preceding 2023. Before Texas finally put the pieces together last year, the Longhorns struggled and fumbled on the gridiron. OU pounced on that prolonged period of mediocrity in Austin to stack together a large number of Big 12 championships – six in a row from 2015 through 2020 – and become an annual College Football Playoff threat, usually an actual participant (2015, 2017-2019). If Texas was not on top of its game, Oklahoma was able to rise to the top of the Big 12 for a long time before Baylor (under the disgraced Art Briles) and Oklahoma State got better in the early 2010s.
For all the tradition Oklahoma football has, and for all the trophies and titles the Sooners can point to over many decades of a storied history, the inconvenient truth is that the SEC will challenge OU in ways the Big 12 rarely if ever did. The Texas game will still be on the schedule as an annual test and a cherished opportunity to gain bragging rights over a hated rival, but the other conference games will be tougher than Kansas or West Virginia or Texas Tech.
The Sooners have to play Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, and LSU in addition to Texas this year. In previous SEC seasons, that wouldn’t have been a murderer’s row of opponents, but in 2024 it is. Oklahoma usually threw Missouri around the field like a rag doll in the old Big Eight days, but this year, Missouri has a team many are pegging in the top 10, which means the Tigers are a frontline choice as a College Football Playoff contender. Ole Miss, for many years part of the SEC’s underclass – or at best, its middle class – is, like Mizzou, a genuine top-10 threat and a College Football Playoff factor as we head into the season.
Oklahoma was 10-2 in its final Big 12 season. The scary and unsettling possibility for OU fans to contemplate in 2024 is that the Sooners – in terms of raw quality – could actually be better than they were last year, and yet have a worse record. Think about that. Oklahoma would do really, really well to finish 9-3 against its 2024 schedule. A 9-3 record would mean that OU will have split six games against Texas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, and LSU, while going 6-0 against the other teams on its schedule. The one reasonably threatening game of those “other six” is a road trip to Auburn, not a walk in the park by any measurement. Welcome to the SEC, Sooners. You will have to show you belong.
Dorothy, you’re not in the Big 12 anymore.
What will make OU’s transition to the SEC that much more uncertain is that the Sooners are asking a young quarterback to lead them this year. Oklahoma fans are excited about the Jackson Arnold era. He does possess a lot of natural athleticism and vibrant qualities which pop off the screen. However, in terms of football IQ and his ability to handle the rigors of a full season, Arnold is unproven. That’s not even a criticism. It’s merely a fact that he hasn’t been The Guy for a full 12- or 13-game ride. He stepped in last year when Dillon Gabriel got hurt. Gabriel transferred to Oregon in the offseason, leaving Arnold as the man in Norman. Does Arnold have the tools to be special? Yes. However, it might not all come together for him this year. He might need one season in which he has to learn a few tough lessons, followed by a 2025 season in which he can ascend to the mountaintop in college football and become a true giant in the sport.
What will make Arnold and his development more of a mystery is that OU coach Brent Venables had to bring in a new offensive coordinator after Jeff Lebby took the open head coaching job at another SEC school, Mississippi State. This might actually work out well for the Sooners. Lebby had a very uneven 2023, and a lot of fans wanted him gone. They got their wish. In comes former North Texas head coach Seth Littrell to attempt to maximize the Sooners’ offense. If this pairing can click, Oklahoma could exceed expectations, but the idea that Arnold will become a superstar right away is harder to agree with precisely because the caliber of opponent in the SEC will be quite considerable on a regular basis.
The Big 12 had tough games. The SEC has main-event games. Is Jackson Arnold ready to make what would be a huge leap in just one season? A little skepticism is warranted.
The idea that Oklahoma will figure out the SEC seems logical and reasonable. The idea that OU will solve this puzzle in one season, however – as opposed to two or three – is where the doubts about the Sooners make the most sense.
As Oklahoma enters the SEC, it’s not a question of whether the Sooners can avoid being punched in the teeth by their new conference. What really counts is how Oklahoma will respond when that happens.
