The Kentucky football experiment enters a critical period.
Matt Zemek, 16Powers.com
The 2022 Kentucky Wildcats’ football season could be summarized in several ways, none of them good. If one was to try to capture the bizarrely brutal nature of this past season in Lexington, the following is an attempt to reduce the insanity to one stinging, painful sentence: Kentucky scored enough points to beat Georgia in a home-field loss to Vanderbilt.
That’s right: Kentucky held the national champion Georgia Bulldogs to 16 points this past season. Had Kentucky scored the 21 points it did in a 24-21 loss to Vanderbilt, UK would have defeated Kirby Smart’s colossus. Yet, Kentucky managed only six points against UGA. The defense which was so good against the national champions was much more porous and inconsistent against Vanderbilt.
You are beginning to get the fuller picture of this team: Whatever was needed on a given day – against great teams, mediocre teams, and bad teams alike – Kentucky too often fell short. Sometimes it was the offense, sometimes it was the defense, sometimes it was both. The bottom line: Kentucky was one of those teams which played just well enough to lose. The offense and defense couldn’t play well at the same time – not often enough, at least, to meet Mark Stoops’ standards and keep UK at or near the nine-win marker which represents a good football year for Big Blue.
Yes, injuries certainly played a key role in shaping the season. Without the rash of injuries this team endured, it clearly would have been better. The way Stoops likes to play depends on a healthy offensive line and linebackers. Injuries at every position group matter, but those two position groups are especially central to Kentucky’s operation. Will Levis was also banged up, which cost UK specifically against South Carolina. Injuries did cast a shadow over much of the season.
Yet, even with injuries, Kentucky should not lose to Vanderbilt at home. It should not lose to a subpar version of South Carolina at home. The Gamecocks came alive at the end of the season, but the version of the Gamecocks which played in Lexington was not playing well, and it still handled Kentucky fairly easily.
Keep in mind that Kentucky has won before without a big-time quarterback. The defense and the running game could make things work, at least in a few specific games. Kentucky has had to deal with notable roster limitations in the past. This team was clearly worse in adjusting to new and unwelcome circumstances.
It could just be viewed as a season which slipped through the cracks, but when one realizes how good Mark Stoops has been in recent years, winning a couple of Citrus Bowls and notching multiple seasons with at least 10 wins, the regression seen in 2022 is harder to accept. Why wasn’t there more depth built into various roster spots? Why wasn’t the coaching staff more agile in coming up with a good Plan B and Plan C? It had done so in the past. The 2022 season didn’t match the previous body of work.
If Mark Stoops can’t elevate Kentucky in the next two years, one will have to question if he can ever get UK to a higher place in the SEC. It is very reasonable to think that Stoops has hit his ceiling in Bluegrass country, and that there’s no way he can make Kentucky even better than what it was in its two Citrus Bowl seasons. Stoops has two years in which to make another run at 10 wins. If he can’t at least get close, it’s reasonable to ask if either he or the Kentucky administration (or both) will seek a fresh start.
No, Stoops is not on the hot seat for 2023. He has done too much with this program to be on that short of a leash. However, two more years of relative failure would leave Kentucky with some very difficult choices to make in December of 2024. The program has to adapt in these next two years with Stoops, or it will need to consider new leadership.
What adds to the difficulty of Kentucky’s present situation, after the dismal Music City Bowl performance against Iowa and the conclusion of a downward slide from the top 10 in the national rankings, is that another long-downtrodden SEC program is rising rapidly. Tennessee is showing what can happen when the right coach comes in and can make better use of a program’s capabilities and resources. Josh Heupel has been able to get the Vols to fulfill their potential. With UT being a force once again in the SEC East, Kentucky is even more boxed in and constrained than before. South Carolina wasn’t a high-quality team throughout the 2022 season the way Tennessee was, but if Spencer Rattler can play anywhere close to the level he exhibited against Tennessee and Clemson, the Gamecocks will be a problem for Kentucky and the rest of the East.
Kentucky is therefore trying to internally restore itself and get back to the 10-win standard Mark Stoops has occasionally reached, but it has to do so while Josh Heupel and Shane Beamer have a lot more upward momentum in Knoxville and Columbia. Moreover, precisely because Tennessee and South Carolina made notable gains in 2022 because of their improved production in the passing game, Stoops and Kentucky have to at least consider the possibility that building their program around defense, not a high-scoring offense, is no longer the best path.
Nick Saban changed from a defense-first emphasis to an offense-first approach at Alabama. It worked out well for him. Kentucky and Stoops might need to do the same if they are to revive their fortunes and compete with the big boys of the SEC.
