Vanderbilt tries to get it right.
Matt Zemek, 16powers.com.
In 2022, Vanderbilt football snapped a very long SEC losing streak and then won another conference game for good measure. Clark Lea moved the program forward. He got rid of an aching, agonizing run of futility and allowed the Commodores to believe again. Vanderbilt entered 2023 believing that better days were possible. Crucially, the results forged later in the 2023 season allowed that belief to feel substantial and not just wishful thinking. When fans follow a sports team, they always hope for the best, but in terms of their honest evaluations, they will often differ. Some fans are drawn to the optimistic view, but others are reflexively negative. What really matters is what reality says. No one will respect a positive or negative assessment if it is detached from reality. Vanderbilt seemed to exist in a reality which genuinely merited an optimistic view heading into 2023.
Heading into 2024, there is not much of a basis for optimism. This team, this program, has to do things on the field which restore a sunnier perspective.
Vanderbilt regressed significantly in 2023. It wasn’t just that the Dores lost every SEC game and brought back all sorts of painful memories; what was far worse was how noncompetitive many of these games were. Vanderbilt did not come especially close to beating any of its SEC opponents in 2023. The Commodores’ smallest margin of defeat in eight SEC losses last year was 16 points. After a Week 5 loss to Kentucky in which Vanderbilt scored 28 points, the Dores did not match that point total for the remainder of the season. They scored 24 points in the regular-season finale against Tennessee; that was as close as they came to 28 points in the final seven games of their 2023 campaign. Vanderbilt allowed at least 31 points in all 10 of its losses. The Dores allowed fewer than 28 points in only one game, their FCS cupcake game versus Alabama A&M.
There was a grim sense that the season was already sinking on September 16, just four games into the journey for the 2023 Commodores. It’s true that no one knew how good UNLV would become; the Rebels became one of the pleasant surprises of the 2023 college football season. Still, the fact that Vanderbilt could not beat UNLV or hold the Rebels under 35 points (they lost 40-37) pointed to a very rough ride in SEC play, and that’s exactly what we saw from VU in its subsequent eight SEC defeats. Vanderbilt was consistent in 2023, but the consistency was bad, not good. When a team turns in that kind of a season, it is next to impossible to say that the program is heading in the right direction. 2023 was a big step backward for the Commodores, so 2024 has to be devoted to a restoration attempt. Everyone within the program would love to make a bowl game, but when we revisit the familiar tension between optimism and pessimism for a college football team heading into a new season, the evidence is heavily stacked on the wrong side of the discussion. Optimism was earned by the 2022 squad and the way it finished that particular season. Optimism was lost by the 2023 team. The 2024 team has to win it back.
Nate Johnson, a transfer from Utah, could be the starting quarterback, though New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia – who was not able to participate in spring ball because he had to finish his semester at NMSU – might be able to make a run at the job in preseason camp.
Here’s a detail to clear up for anyone who might be confused. Tim Beck is Vanderbilt’s offensive coordinator. If you’re thinking that’s the guy who has coached at Ohio State, Texas, and North Carolina State in recent years, you’re wrong. There’s another Tim Beck (the name isn’t that uncommon, right?) who spent the vast majority of his college coaching career at the NCAA Division II level. That Tim Beck (not the other one, who is currently the head coach at Coastal Carolina) coached Pavia at New Mexico State under head coach Jerry Kill. Pavia did well as an Aggie, so that presumably keeps him in the mix as a potential starter for the Commdores.
Let’s go back to Nate Johnson: Last year, as you might recall, Utah played the whole season without star quarterback Cam Rising. Johnson and Bryson Barnes both played a considerable number of snaps in relief of Rising, but over the course of the full season, Barnes generally did more than Johnson and was the better quarterback for the Utes. Barnes being better than Johnson, however, is less an indication of Barnes’ quality than it was a reflection of Johnson’s limitations. Johnson is fast and has undeniable athleticism, but he just couldn’t make the grade as a dropback pocket passer. When Utah’s offense – which struggled for much of the year – finally played at a higher level later in the season, it was Barnes who was able to improve the Utes and make them more dangerous, not Johnson. Because Johnson is such a work in progress, there is legitimate reason to think Pavia can make a run at the QB1 spot. Summer camp will be very interesting.
Clark Lea watched close to 20 players leave VU in the transfer portal in the offseason. When the previous season was as bad as 2023 was, that level of roster turnover is a good thing. VU did need a dramatic roster makeover. It remains to be seen, though, if the incoming replacements will significantly elevate this team’s level of performance. One big change Lea made was to hire a new offensive line coach, Chris Klenakis. If he can whip the offensive line into shape, Vanderbilt might not necessarily score a lot more in 2024, but it could control the ball and thereby minimize exposure to a defense which frequently got chewed up last season.
The schedule is going to be a bear in the new-look SEC. Texas joins the conference and will face VU in 2024. Virginia Tech, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, and Tennessee join the Longhorns as opponents who will be very difficult to beat. Auburn and Kentucky are beatable, but both games are on the road. Wanting to make a bowl game is simply not realistic after the 2023 season VU had. However, if this team can go 4-8 against this schedule, we could go into 2025 thinking Vanderbilt football is once again heading in the right direction.
